more retail earnings, SCOTUS hearings on student loan forgiveness, home price updates, PMI readings


job market updates, Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony, Biden's budget proposal, Apple shareholders' meeting

The U.S. labor market will be in the spotlight next week with the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on Wednesday, along with ADP’s National Employment Report tracking private sector payrolls. On Friday, the Labor Department will release its nonfarm payrolls report for February. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday as part of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. On Thursday, President Biden will outline his budget proposal for the upcoming fiscal year to Congress. Apple, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalization, will hold its annual shareholders’ meeting virtually on Friday. The company will vote to re-elect its board of directors, approve executive pay, vote on shareholder proposals, and more.1

Labor Market Updates

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for January, tracking the number of openings, hires, quits, and separations for the month. Job openings are projected to have fallen to 10.6 million in January, down from 11 million in December. As of the latest report, there are nearly two job openings for every job seeker, highlighting the tight national labor market.

Also on Wednesday, payroll provider ADP will release its National Employment Report, tracking growth in private sector payrolls for February. Economists project private businesses added 185,000 positions last month, compared to 108,000 in January. This will set the stage for the February nonfarm payrolls report due from the BLS on Friday. Economists project the U.S. added 200,000 jobs last month, well below a 517,000 gain in January that marked the strongest job growth in six months. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at a 53-year low of 3.4%.

Jerome Powell's Testimony to Congress

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday as part of the Fed chair’s semiannual testimony to Congress on monetary policy. With hotter-than-expected inflation figures in January, Fed officials could raise interest rates more aggressively in the upcoming months, and keep rates higher for longer. Traders are now projecting up to four additional rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps) this year, resulting in a terminal fed funds rate between 5.5% and 5.75% by September, according to fed funds futures data published by CME Group.

President Biden's Budget Proposal

On Thursday, President Biden will outline his budget proposal for the upcoming fiscal year to Congress. The new budget may contain higher taxes on billionaires and upper-income households, but will not feature any tax increases for households making less than $400,000 a year. The announcement will come amid an impasse on the debt ceiling, and the federal government could run out of money to pay its bills as early as the summer if an agreement isn’t reached.