Monday January 11th

11-01-2021

Stocks are set to pull back from record levels with Dow futures down 200 points

U.S. stock index futures fell in early morning trading Monday as investors assessed equity valuations and the outlook for more Covid-19 relief stimulus, along with ongoing political turmoil. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, or 222 points. S&P 500 futures lost 0.6% along with Nasdaq 100 futures. The stock market is coming off a solid week to start 2021 as investors looked past a violent siege of the Capitol and focused on the prospect for additional fiscal stimulus after a Democratic sweep of Congress. The S&P 500 climbed for four days straight to a record with a 1.8% gain last week. The Dow and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6% and 2.4% in the prior week, respectively, also reaching all-time highs. Yet the rally in the face of political upheaval and a pandemic has raised concerns that investors have grown too exuberant. Shares of Tesla, for example, were up 25% last week and 800% in the last 12 months. They now trade for around 90-times 2021 cash flow. Tesla shares were off by 2% in Monday premarket trading. Bitcoin, which has been a symbol of speculation in the financial markets, was back down to $35,000 in early Monday trading after trading above $40,000 over the weekend. “After being bullish for several months, we are definitely becoming more cautious on the stock market up at these levels,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note Sunday. “We believe that the vast majority of the rally from the March lows is behind us...and that a correction is likely to begin at some point in the first quarter of this year.” Shares of Boeing were off 2% in premarket trading Monday. JPMorgan shares lost 1% in early trading. Tensions will be high in Washington again this week and it remains to be seen when or if the markets will be affected by it. Democrats with the support of some Republicans are moving toward starting impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives against President Donald Trump as soon as this week for inciting the mob attack at the Capitol. The House Rules Committee is expected to expedite impeachment proceedings without committee hearings or votes. For now, the market appears to be looking past it because Congress was able to successfully confirm Biden’s election win and Democrats now in the Senate majority are likely to pursue another big stimulus. If these events start to delay or derail those stimulus plans, traders may start to pay more attention. President-elect Joe Biden pledged Friday a hefty economic stimulus rollout, which he said will be “in the trillions of dollars.” More details will follow in a formal announcement on Thursday, six days before he is slated to take office. “The advance is built on three main pillars: strong corporate earnings, massive stimulus, and vaccine optimism,” Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge said in a note on Sunday. “Stimulus expectations are getting elevated – Biden’s plan may be worth several trillion dollars on paper, but what actually gets passed will probably be much smaller.” The need for further stimulus was underscored by an unexpected job loss in December. The Labor Department reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000 as new lockdown restrictions hammered virus-sensitive industries, marking the first monthly drop since April. Some on Wall Street see a pullback on the horizon for the market especially after a surprisingly strong 2020. The S&P 500 gained 16.3% last year. Last week, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield broke above 1% for the first time since the pandemic-driven turmoil in March. Major Asia-Pacific markets dipped on Monday, with South Korean stocks hitting a pause following a stellar start to 2021. South Korea’s Kospi, which jumped nearly 10% in the first trading week of the year, shed earlier gains seen during the session and closed 0.12% lower at 3,148.45. Mainland Chinese stocks fell on the day: The Shanghai composite declined 1.08% to 3,531.50 while the Shenzhen component shed 1.331% to 15,115.38. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was above the flatline, as of its final hour of trading. Markets in Japan were closed on Monday for a holiday. Oil prices fell on Monday on renewed concerns about global fuel demand amid strict coronavirus lockdowns in Europe and new movement restrictions in China, the world’s second-largest oil user, after a jump in cases there. Brent crude oil futures fell 60 cents, or 1%, to $55.39 a barrel after earlier climbing to $56.39, its highest since Feb. 25, 2020. Brent rose in the previous four sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 29 cents, or 0.57%, to $51.94 a barrel. WTI rose to its highest in nearly a year on Friday. Gold on Monday bounced off a six-week trough as a rally in equities stalled, though gains were capped by a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,849.64 per ounce, after touching its lowest since Dec. 2 at $1,816.53. Gold last week recorded its biggest percentage fall since late November. U.S. gold futures gained 0.8% to $1,849.70.